As Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL Quick QuoteBURL - Free Report) prepares to unveil its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on May 28, before the opening bell, investors are eager to see if the company can beat market expectations. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $2,805 million, indicating 12% growth from the prior-year quarter. The consensus mark for earnings has inched up a penny to $1.77 per share over the past seven days, suggesting a 10.6% increase from the year-ago period.

BURL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.8%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 4%.

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What the Zacks Model Says About BURL’s Q1 Earnings

As investors prepare for Burlington Stores’ first-quarter results, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model predicts that an earnings beat is likely for Burlington Stores this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Burlington Stores has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +6.34%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 

Burlington Stores, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Burlington Stores, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Burlington Stores, Inc. Quote

Key Factors to Observe Ahead of BURL's Q1 Earnings

Burlington Stores’ first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from the continued execution of its Burlington 2.0 strategy. Management has been focused on strengthening execution across merchandising, planning, inventory management and store operations, while also improving localization capabilities to better align assortments with regional demand patterns. The company also entered the year with fresher assortments and higher in-store inventory levels, positioning it well to capture demand during the spring selling season. We expect comparable store sales to increase 3.5% during the quarter under review.

Another likely growth driver is Burlington Stores’ focus on elevating its merchandise assortment with better brands, improved fashion content and stronger value offerings. Management had earlier highlighted encouraging customer response to higher-quality branded merchandise offered at compelling values. Burlington also appeared well-positioned to benefit from favorable tax refund trends and healthy off-price merchandise availability, which may have fueled demand across apparel, footwear and accessories categories. Burlington Stores’ ability to deliver compelling value in an uncertain consumer environment may have supported sales momentum in the off-price space.

Burlington Stores’ expanding store base and operational improvements are also likely to have supported first-quarter performance. The company has continued opening smaller-format stores in productive strip-center locations while remodeling and relocating older stores to improve efficiency and customer experience. At the same time, ongoing supply-chain productivity initiatives and faster inventory flow may have helped stores stay fresh and responsive to consumer preferences. These initiatives are likely to have strengthened Burlington’s ability to capitalize on resilient demand from value-focused shoppers.

On the flip side, Burlington Stores’ first-quarter margin may have faced pressure from higher operational and supply-chain-related expenses. Management had indicated that startup costs tied to its new Savannah distribution center would have weighed on margins. Burlington also flagged a markdown timing shift and noted that it was lapping certain temporary cost-saving actions implemented in the prior-year period, which may have created additional margin pressure despite healthy sales trends. We expect gross margin contraction of 40 basis points in the quarter under discussion.

BURL Stock Price Performance

Burlington Stores, which competes with Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST Quick QuoteROST - Free Report) and The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX Quick QuoteTJX - Free Report) , has seen its shares surge 36.8% over the past year compared with the industry’s 13.7% rise. 

Burlington Stores has trailed Ross Stores but outpaced TJX Companies. While shares of Ross Stores have surged 68%, those of TJX Companies have advanced 25.9% over the same time frame.
 

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Does BURL Present a Strong Case for Value Investing?

Burlington Stores’ valuation remains discounted relative to the industry. The stock currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 27.46, below the industry average of 32.44. However, BURL is trading above its 12-month median P/E of 26.69, suggesting that while the stock remains relatively attractive versus the industry, it is slightly expensive compared with its recent historical range.

BURL is trading at a discount to Ross Stores (forward 12-month P/E ratio of 30.05) and TJX Companies (30). 
 

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Final Words on Burlington Stores

Burlington Stores appears well-positioned heading into its first-quarter earnings release, with the Zacks model indicating a likely earnings beat. Ongoing execution of Burlington 2.0, improved merchandising, favorable off-price inventory availability and store-expansion efforts are likely to have supported the top line, although distribution-center startup costs and markdown timing may have weighed on margins. Burlington’s focus on value, operational flexibility and assortment enhancement also appears to have supported performance during the quarter. Given these factors, the stock appears favorably positioned ahead of the earnings announcement.